Monday, 2 November 2009

Day 36

Win Lay System - Day 36
Today's starting bank: 3748.80
Today's profit: -190.52
Profit since 28/09/2009: 1558.28
New bank: 3558.28
New stake liability: To be confirmed! (112.46 today)

Today's strike rate: 65 wins from 74 selections = 87.84%
Strike rate since start: 840 wins from 906 selections = 92.72%

Projections for 27/09/2010
Strike rate: 8512 wins from 9186 selections = 92.66%
Profit: £372,028.49

I've made radical changes to the system. Firstly I've made a change that should greatly increase the number of selections. This is in the belief that all of these selections are underpriced. Historical data suggests that they are. Secondly, I've reduced the liability from 4% of bank to 3% of bank. This is for two reasons; the increased number of selections adds a lot of risk to the profits for each race, and I also think 4% was too high in the first place.

These changes should increase overall profit as well as reduce risk of busting my bank. Well, at least that's the theory. Again, with more selections, I should earn a lot more Betfair points to help reduce my commission rate.

I'm going to have a think about whether or not to reduce the daily liability figure after a loss.

Today showed a bad loss, but I'm comforted by the fact that I would have lost a lot more had I not made these changes today.

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