Wednesday, 4 November 2009

Day 38

Win Lay System - Day 38
Today's starting bank: 3204.41
Today's profit: -174.37
Profit since 28/09/2009: 1030.04
New bank: 3030.04
New stake liability: 90.90

The vastly increased number of selections (there were around 220 today) means that it would take too much time to produce strike rate and projection figures. I may be able to do this programatically in the future.

I've had another look at the historical data in relation to my current set of selections (set A) and the new set (B) that I identified recently. As well as that I've analysed those horses that are included in both sets (the intersection of A and B) as well as the combined set of horses (the union of A and B).

Here's how they performed in the 684 days from December 2007 with a fixed liability of £100 on each selection and commission decucted:

Set A
Average price: 12.05
Strike rate: 108745 wins from 117501 selections = 92.55%
Profit: £105,213 (£153.82 per day)
Winning days: 391 (57.16%)
Highest daily win: £2243
Highest daily loss: £940

Set B
Average price: 11.72
Strike rate: 111682 wins from 121035 selections = 92.27%
Profit: £105,522 (£154.27 per day)
Winning days: 395 (57.75%)
Highest daily win: £2867
Highest daily loss: £870

Intersection of A and B
Average price: 12.78
Strike rate: 61470 wins from 65849 selections = 93.35%
Profit: £84,268 (£123.20 per day)
Winning days: 402 (58.77%)
Highest daily win: £1705
Highest daily loss: £800

Union of A and B
Average price: 11.56
Strike rate: 158957 wins from 172687 selections = 92.05%
Profit: £132,749 (£194.08 per day)
Winning days: 400 (58.48%)
Highest daily win: £2703
Highest daily loss: £1025

As you might expect, the quality selections are in the intersection, but quality seems to be far less important than quantity, and the union comes out tops on profit. It's likely that I'll now start laying horses from both A and B. That could be an average of 230 per day, in which case I really need to start work on automating the bet placements.

These figures look extremely impressive; in fact they seem almost too good to be true. I plan to put some checks in place that will help to highlight any errors I'm making in producing these figures.

The figures produced by using 3% of bank rather than a fixed liability of £100 are astronomical and would be impossible to achieve in real life.

It appears I increased the number of selections a few days too late, as I just missed out on a day where I would have made about £700.


Anonymous said...

Be carrefull Alan!! Your gain decrease! Good luck for a great comeback ;-)

Allan said...

Thanks Anon