Wednesday, 19 August 2009

Starting to doubt if I can trade at all.


I won't know for sure unless I stop myself going in play. Luck is playing too big a factor in my results. I could have been £3000 down or £3000 up last night. I've been lucky in the past with horses that would have cost me dearly trading at 1.01, but losing. Last night some went below 1.10 that I could have greened up on, but they lost.

If this was my only source of income, I couldn't allow it to happen. I need to have a serious word with myself.


5 comments:

Anonymous said...

hi allan a good start you have made i am just starting off myself only using £3 stakes at the mo til i get the hang of it what sort of staking plan do you currently use

makingasplash2009 said...

Hi Allan,

I had the same initial problems with letting trades go in play. With smaller stakes admittedly but the problem was the same. Eventually you will go bust, that's cert.

I had to have a word with myself because what i had started out to do was trade but it became clear that i was gambling and that was what i was trying to distance myself from. The problem is the more you keep winning by going in play the harder it becomes to stop.

Firstly, why are you going in play? Is it because you are in a red position when the race starts or are you not satisfied with the amount you have made and want more?

It seems as though you have a decent bank so why risk it all on going in play. I guarantee that once it's gone you will regret it but maybe that's what you need to learn the lesson.

Alternatively, you could stop as of today. Whatever bank you have left, split it into 3 separate banks. That way if you do blow one bank then you will have 2 others to allow you to continue your education. The next thing is to start using stop losses. How many ticks is up to you but start using them, my trading improved considerably when i started (even though i blew my bank after starting using them lol) and as a result the big losses occurred less frequently. The next thing is before you enter a trade, are you checking the trading range? More often than not i used to enter trades when a price looked as though it was steaming but when i clicked the button the steamer stopped and reversed. This used to frustrate me beyond belief but after checking the graph i could see i was either laying at the top of the range or backing at the bottom. Sometimes i was lucky and the horse continued but mainly i would just sit there like a lemming waiting for the price to come back, but it never did, so i let it go in play. After all, the price would drop 7 or 8 ticks surely?

There is so much more to learn and you are less than a month into your education so why not give yourself every chance and slow things down a bit. I'm 3 months into my journey and I'm still a long way off but i am getting there albeit slowly. So take a step back, think about what you want to be, a gambler or a trader. You had a lucky start, as did I and it wasn't until i had gone bust a few times that it started to dawn on me that going in play just wasn't working. If you keep your losses to a manageable level then the rest should start to look after itself.

I hope i dont come across as patronising or as though i am having a go as that is not my intention. I just know where you are at and if you dont start changing your ways then you may not make it. I would suggest reading Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas. It deals with the psychology of accepting losses and i found it quite helpful as i am sure others have.

Anyway rant over :) and good luck.

Mark said...

Very good advice there, useful to me too. I started trading with £1 stakes in June, and it wasn't working because I was taking risks so I moved on to other techniques such as laying, and by the start of this month I was down £150.
Back to trading I went, this time starting on paper, then moving from £1 and £2 stakes to £5. In my first week I went from a £20 bank to £120, but mainly down to a big slice of luck which I think has affected me since. I was at my mates last week and i'd backed a horse at 12.0 and we lost internet so I couldn't lay, the horse won and I won over £50. Since then i've gone backwards and started going in play, or even laying a favourite to cover losses on other horses, but then I take a bigger loss when the fav wins.
I think i've got too complacent, thinking i'll get lucky again, so last night I stopped myself and had a night on the Xbox.
Tonight i'll be trading again but with discipline hopefully.

I like this blog more than Adam Heathcotes because this is more realistic for most of us. I can't see me ever achieving what Adam does, so to follow him could give me unrealistic expectations.

Good luck Allan.

Allan said...

Anon

I'm staking £400 for prices below 4.0, reducing to £50 for prices above 10.0.

'splash

Excellent advice, and I thank you for that. I go in play if I am red on a horse. I know I shouldn't, but just can't stop myself.

Your advice didn't sound patronising in the least. Thank you for taking the time to offer it.

Mark

I hope you'll still follow me when I'm making as much as Adam. :)

Donatello Bo said...

Hi Mark, I used to what you do now, but eventually I just had to change. I think I'm converted now and don't go in play anymore. It was difficult at the start but I'm finding it verymuch easier as I go along. Cheers Donie