Friday, 9 October 2009

Day 12 results

Today's starting bank: 2332.93
Today's profit: 101.76
Profit since 28/09/2009: 434.69
New bank: 2434.69
New stake liability: 97.53 (unchanged)

Today's strike rate: 18 wins from 19 selections = 94.74%
Strike rate since start: 140 wins from 155 selections = 90.32%

Projected strike rate at 27/09/2010: 4259 wins from 4715 selections: 90.33%
Projected profit at 27/09/2010: £595,062.80

I'd settle for that too, but it would require me to lay horses for as much as £23,000 each.

Is this complete nonsense or is there a measure of reality to it, I wonder?

2 comments:

Rob The Builder said...

It's only nonsense because of two factors :

i. Liquidity problems will kick in well before you hit the half million!

ii. We all reach a level where the money suddenly becomes very real - 'do I want to lay the price of a Bang & Olufsen system on a third-rate nag' etc..

Allan said...

Hi Rob

I absolutely agree with what you say, but I think there ae other factors too.

1 i lack patience and discipline, and I wouldn't mind a half million in my back pocket tonorrow.

2 and mainly, the projection is based on 12 days of actual data. If the other 354 days are similar or better, that's fine.

On the other hand, the projected profit could be underestimated because the number of selections doubled from last Saturday. If they are all just as profitable, then half a million profit could happen a lot sooner, because the projections are currently based on an average of 13 selections per day, when there are about 17 now.

The thing that startles me, is that the past 5 or 6 years each show a "profit" of about a million per year laying this group of horses.