Thursday, 1 October 2009

Thursday's results

Thurday 1 October
Starting bank: 2072.63
Today's profit: 4.04
Profit since 28/09/2009: 76.67
New bank: 2076.67

Today's strike rate: 8 wins from 9 selections = 88.89%
Strike rate since start: 27 wins from 30 selections = 90%

The system was inspired by Maria's Laying System.

Maria began with a £3000 bank, and in a year turned it into more than £100,000. Along similar lines, I'd like to increase my bank from £2000 significantly.

To do this, I need to be successful in a number of areas

Have an edge
I have to select horses that on average, win fewer races than their prices reflect they should. I am using a predetermined formula for this. Data I've collected suggests that the formula would have had an edge over the past 13 months. I used Betfair's SP in the calculations. I lay at a maximum BSP of 16.0 (15/1). The strike rate for those horses was 87%. The average BSP was 8.63. For the winners, the average was 6.42. I realise though that past performance is no guarantee of future profits.

Have a good staking plan
Since day 2, I've risked a liability of 4% of my current bank on each horse. Today that was £82.91. Tomorrow it increases to £83.07. However, after a losing day, I won't be decreasing the liability. Similar to Maria's staking plan, I will adjust my stakes downwards if my bank falls 25% below it's highest level, or reconsider whether it's worth continuing with. Using this method of staking against last year's data provided optimum profitability.

Lay at good prices
Ideally I'd like to lay below BSP. That's not going to be easy for me since I'm working all day. However, I can make use of Betfair's options for handling unmatched bets at the off. I'm a programmer, so I could also create a bot to place the bets if I feel that would be beneficial. It looks like it will, even if just to save time calculating the stakes and placing the bets.

Avoid mistakes
On Monday, there was a horse that fitted the system requirements, but its odds were too high, so I left it out. It was only after the race that I noticed that its price had dropped well below the limit.

Be patient and disciplined
That's not going to be easy for me either! Lets see how it goes.

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