Tuesday, 20 October 2009

Losing runs

I've used many systems in the past that have begun very well. Then I'd increase my stakes, and immediately the system would start to lose, and I'd give up on them. These were systems for which I didn't have historical data, because there wasn't any. They were different types of systems to these.

My new place laying system has started badly with two consecutive losing days. In the past that would have freaked me out, and I might have given up on it, or given it just one more day. Although I'm disappointed, I'm not about to pack it in, because according to the historical results, it should recover the losses and go on to become profitable. Here's the graph that represents the profit growth of the system since September 2008. This is to a fixed liability of £15 on each selection. Commission has been deducted.

The perfect system for me would be one that shows a graph with a straight diagonal upwards line. Until I find it, I will have to make do with what I've got; a system that has winning and losing days. Of those 406 days, 176 (43%) produced losses. There were 6 consecutive losing days, but there were also 13 consecutive winning days. One day it would have lost £232, but there was also a day where it would have made £598.

So unless I get results that are worse than these, I won't be packing it in.

PS It's hard to tell from the graph, but it also started badly, and was losing £127 after the first two days.


ballb0y said...

Hello Allan,

I read in another blog a few weeks ago (and I'll send you the link if I can remember whose it was!) that any strategy should be tested over somewhere in the region of 1000 bets to see whether or not it would be profitable. I have never given any strategy that amount of time and all my previous attempts at backing & laying have gone to pot so to speak. Looks like I should have persevered...

Good luck with the current one anyway.



Cran said...

It's difficult to keep confident when you get a losing run, but if you are using a small enough % of your bank and you have stats to back up your strategy it shouldn't be a problem to keep going.

The temptation is to start with too big stakes and/or increase the stakes too fast... but then if you get 3 or 4 losing days in a row it hurts...

stick with it!