Sunday, 18 October 2009

Day 21 results

Today's starting bank: 2955.65
Today's profit: 287.74
Profit since 28/09/2009: 1243.39
New bank: 3243.39
New stake liability: 129.74

Today's strike rate: 37 wins from 37 selections = 100%
Strike rate since start: 337 wins from 365 selections = 92.33%

Projections for 27/09/2010
Strike rate: 5610 wins from 6049 selections = 92.74%
Profit: £8,827,996.83

Three weeks into system, and it's going better than I could have dreamed, but it's early days, and I won't be placing my order for a Porche just yet!

I've now analysed the place data, and today I began using my place laying system. I'll hopefully be back later tonight to post the results.

I've had a couple of comments recently about me not posting the names of my selections or the criteria for selecting them. I'll respond to them here in the hope that others will see it.

I said at the start that I wouldn't be posting those details, and there is a very good reason for it. Maria posted her selections for a year but then stopped because she was finding it increasingly difficult to get her bets matched at reasonable prices. She used other systems as well which she didn't post the selections for, and she didn't have the same problem betting those. Maria never gave away the criteria for selecting her lays, obviously because it would render the system useless. She posted her selections for a year because she was confident that there was no way that readers could work out how she was arriving at them. Unfortunately that doesn't apply to my selections. I think someone could quite easily see a pattern to my selections. I intend to investigate more systems over time, and if I think that one of them couldn't be worked out from the selections, I'll post them; at least for a while. I'm sorry if that is disappointing.

Listen to me talking as though I've found the goose that lays the golden eggs. It's still very early days. I'd be delighted if I could just get back all the money I've lost at Betfair. At least I'm slowing down my losses!

I started comparing my system with Maria's after every 100 selections, but since I've increased my number of selections, I think that would be too often, and it wouldn't be a sensible comparison either. So I've decided to do it once a week. Here's where Maria was at after three weeks:

Maria's Laying System after three weeks.
Strike rate: 174 wins from 213 selections = 81.69%
Profit: £407.41

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